Third Annual BF betleH Tournament

Third Annual BF betleH Tournament (http://www.betleh.com/cgi-bin/b3/YaBB.pl)

General >> Questions for the Judges >> 6-sided die?
(Message started by: Ing The Puny on Jan 23^rd, 2005, 5:28pm)

Title: 6-sided die?
Post by Ing The Puny on Jan 23^rd, 2005, 5:28pm

I thought the competition last year used a 10-sided die to represent chance in each match, but the rules post says this year's will use a 6-sided die.

A 6-sided die doesn't offer that much influence based on chance. The underdog has a:
41.7% chance to make up 1 point
27.8% chance for 2 points
16.7% chance for 3 points
8.3% chance for 4 points
2.8% chance for 5 points

So if the favorite in a fight has a 3.1 point skill advantage over the underdog, the underdog has only an 8.3% chance of winning... (the underdog / favorite have to roll 5/1, 6/2 or 6/1, three chances out of 36, or 8.3%).

With a 10-sided die, the chances are:
45% to make up 1 point
36% to make up 2 points
28% to make up 3 points
21% to make up 4 points
15% for 5 points
10% for 6 points
6% for 7 points
3% for 8 points
1% for 9 points

For reference, 2d6 lloks like:
44.4% for 1 point
33.6% for 2
23.9% for 3
15.9% for 4
9.7% for 5
5.4% for 6
2.7% for 7
1.2% for 8
0.39% for 9
0.08% for 10

Personally, I like the 2d6 table the best, since it gives a chance to make up differences of any size, with resonable percentages for the 1-4 range, but the likelyhood an upset drops off sharply as the difference goes up.

Of course, the die system used should also reflect the relative spread of scores that come out of the adjustment process...

-Ing
2nd Year Cadet
Klach D'Kel Brakt
TF 86

Title: Re: 6-sided die?
Post by K`Hare totlh on Jan 23^rd, 2005, 6:49pm

Remember that there is the honor value in play too, that's 2 points the fighter can effect.

The judges have discussed what die to use and this will no doubt start up another discussion.

But go read the other thread. The goal shouldn't be just to win. It wouldn't make sense for a young human ensign who has never picked up a weapon to beat an old, grizzled Klingon veteran. Now, an experienced young marine against a seasoned CO, there should be a chance... but how to quantify, and how to be fair?

So we have the random element but the range of skills does allow for some matches to be known before the die roll. As judges, we have tried to balance it and there were slight adjustments from last year, but over all it did work.

That said, the basic system is each fighters skill as modified by their honor stance... and then a d6 added to both scores... so it is 2d6.

Title: Re: 6-sided die?
Post by Ing The Puny on Jan 23^rd, 2005, 11:13pm

Right - my 2d6 table was "2d6 for each fighter" (or 4d6 total). I certainly don't think this issue is at all a big deal. I'm just trying to offer a few constructive suggestions to try to make the event even more fun, but I'll certainly understand if things are too far along in the process for the suggestions to be considered.

But for what it's worth, here are my thoughts: It seems to me most matches will feature over 3 points of differrence between the fighters, which gives only a 1/12 chance for the underdog to win (using the 1d6 system) without a shift from the honor stances.

While I'm not in the tournament, I have 2 philosophical issues with this:
1) It means that, among closely matched combatants, the honor stance gives a huge benefit to the 'dishonorable' fighters, increasing the chance that fighting honorably will cost good fighters matches. That just doesn't seem like a very 'Star Trek' storyline, although it is more Klingon for someone to be able to lose while winning.
2) Without a significant chance to overcome deficits around 5-6 points, anyone looking at the brackets can pretty much pick out who's going to win each match as soon as the brackets are posted. Which really takes a lot of the suspense out of the whole thing.

Another thing that could be done is not publishing fighters' exact skill levels. If you only publish skill levels rounded to the nearest even integer or so, it will still give all the players a feel for the relative skill levels of the fighters without giving away exactly how much honor/luck each fighter needs to win.

-Ing

Title: Re: 6-sided die?
Post by Ta`pez HoD on Jan 23^rd, 2005, 11:49pm

thats why the honorable warrior lost and got the player awards - winning ultimatly isnt what this is about - even though worf said that winning a battle is the greatest honor of all

Title: Re: 6-sided die?
Post by So`l Mackenzie on Jan 24^th, 2005, 1:12am

Last tournament, l won twice, dispite being outmatched in both rounds, and in the second, my already suprior opponent fought +1 Dirty. Upsets are quite possible, they just don't happen all the time, which is how it should be.

Title: Re: 6-sided die?
Post by Ta`pez HoD on Jan 24^th, 2005, 1:13am

the 1st tourney had way to many unrealistic upsets

Title: Re: 6-sided die?
Post by So`l Mackenzie on Jan 24^th, 2005, 1:16am

I would make the joke that presents itself here, but it's just too obvious.

Title: Re: 6-sided die?
Post by Mrek on Jan 24^th, 2005, 2:45am

I do not realy understand the Dice part and how it is involved.

I do understand why a dishonorable opponent might win. They are willing to go to measures to win that the Honorable opponent would not go to.

Still I don't think the point should be to win in title. I feel that what matters is how you win or loose.

I for one could not play my character in dishonor, at least as I see it. To have him fight dishonorably would be to play him out of character.

I will stick with what he is no matter the outcome.

Title: Re: 6-sided die?
Post by K`Hare totlh on Jan 24^th, 2005, 1:50pm

A fine Klingon attitude.

Basically, the system is to allow for some variation in the outcomes so it isn't totally predicitable, while at the same time, making it more 'realistic'.

In the first tourney it was totally random (a few modifiers based on character). The first night, the speculation was that K'Hare or Q'olavraH would win, because in character, they should, but both lost in the first round. K'Hare lost to a fed ensign who wasn't really a combat character.

The second year we introduced the skill system. We think it worked out well. This year its been modified slightly, but is essentially the same. The main change was that enlisted were short changed last year. Now, high enlisted ranks give the same kind of bonus as high officer ranks.

Last year, K'rahl would have been the favorite. In character, he was the best betleH fighter in BF. K'Hare was surprisingly close (he didn't compete since he is a judge) but he grew into a more combat ready character. Ta'pez was up there too, but K'rahl had the advantage. That they are rated so high shouldn't be surprising. They are all Klingon (in their own way) and are the three highest ranking Klingons in BF.

The difference in Ta'pez and K'rahl has gotten smaller and Q'ol is getting up there. Tauvits is also getting up there. Next year I except that gap to be even smaller and I expect some non-Klingons to start getting in that same grouping. If for no other reason then the tourney itself is experience which up's character skills.

In the end someone has to win in character and everyone else has to lose... the trophy. Winning is a bragging point but the point is to have a dramatic tourney. You all have to have faith that the judges are doing their best to make things fair.

At this point, based on the combat system, K'Hare rates higher than everyone else. (I think Bremer would beat him but he hasn't signed up. Wolfe isn't quite that high because he doesn't have the same Klingon focus as Bremer.) That shouldn't be surprising because the core of the system was my idea and K'Hare, being my character, corresponds to my idea of what a good betleH fighter would be. Klingons certainly have an advantage here because it is a Klingon weapon. But in the end, the system is designed to allow for a dramatic and believeable story. Each year we will review it and try to improve things.

If you have a specific complaint or flaw you see in the system PM me and I will talk to you about. The likely answer will be either we thought about that and thought that would cause a worse problem, or you are right, we will try to correct that next year.

We are trying to make the tourney enjoyable and dramatic. Therefore, chance is an element. In any simm, the CO must make decisions about the flow of the story. Because there is no fair way to decide if Ta'pez, the TGCO in TF44 is better or worse than K'rahl, a TGCO in TF58, we do our best with this system. If its Ta'pez vs. a Vulcan pacifist ensign who has never picked up a betleH... well, the system heavily favors Ta'pez. The random roll we use may not be 'right', but I am not sure what that means. We have a system that trys to assess the Character's strength... it may be wrong.

As I said, K'Hare ranks higher in this system then K'rahl, but in character, we both would agree that K'rahl was better. The slight difference between the two is only enough to make ties go to K'Hare. In character, they wouldn't expect it to be that close. But dramatically, if the two ever duel, the outcome would be decided by the players for the best story. Here, if two players agreed beforehand and told the judges who won, I am sure we'd go along. I'd want to hear the argument why, but I'd let you do it. This system just gives us a way to decide who will win as objective viewers of the character bios and history.

Title: Re: 6-sided die?
Post by Falco_Tauvits on Jan 30^th, 2005, 11:02am

Fighting without honour can allow you to proceed very efficiently through the tournament, or it did last year. Tauvits fought dishonourably for many matches, though I tied it into a personal development and I think it worked out quite well. He hacked his way through the tournament rather efficiently, and his story arc came to the point that, when he realised he'd just been going about it all the wrong way, he found himself against Ta'pez. Now, he would have stood a fighting chance if he'd fought dishonourably - probably would have lost, but there was still a chance - yet the blasted plotline demanded he throw himself on his betleH, so to speak, fight with great honour...

...and get completely, utterly, mullered.

I will be quite happy to poke anyone who decides to fight dishonourably just for the modifier and doesn't include it in their posts, even if it's just some train of thought regarding it. I know Tauvits will be fighting a lot more reasonably this year, and I only expect him to creep into fighting dishonourably if something happens (an opponent he REALLY wants to beat, or if his little sub-plot for the tournament rubs him badly).

Fighting with honour is easier to explain off-handedly in these tournaments. If you're going to fight dishonourably, at least do us all the favour of giving us a good read about your character's motivations. Even if it is just that your character really, really wants to win and they don't care how. Just bear in mind that the audience may not really like them.

Title: Re: 6-sided die?
Post by Ta`pez HoD on Jan 30^th, 2005, 1:57pm

i think me and Krahl provided lots of motivation ;)